eseoulpost
DomesticEconomy
S. Korea may not attain 3 pct growth target in 2018 amid myriad of challenges: observers
min  |  min
폰트키우기 폰트줄이기 프린트하기 메일보내기 신고하기
승인 2018.07.02  
트위터 페이스북 미투데이 요즘 네이버 구글 msn
   

South Korea may not be able to meet its 3 percent growth target this year amid a host of challenges ranging from poor employment figures to weak investment and consumption, local observers said Sunday.

The forecasts by a growing number of private economists have raised speculation that Seoul may be compelled to downgrade its annual growth estimate -- a tell tale sign of things not going to plan.

Skeptics said that Asia's fourth largest economy is further encumbered by a possible outflow of foreign capital and a high degree of household debt going into the second half that may fuel downside risks.

Household debt rose 8 percent on-year to 1,468 trillion won (US$1.34 trillion) in the first quarter, with the widening gap in key rates between South Korea and the United States causing worries about capital leaving the country.

Assessments by foreign and domestic investment banks and think tanks showed South Korea's average growth hovering

around 2.9 percent this year with some, like ING Group, estimating expansion to fall off to just 2.6 percent.


Private South Korean think tanks like the Hyundai Research Institute (HRI), the LG Economic Research Institute, and the Korea Economic Research Institute are forecasting 2.8 percent growth, while the Korea Development Institute (KDI) is estimating 2.9 percent.

The most worrisome aspect of the data has been the weak job market -- an average of 149,000 jobs were created on a monthly basis in the January-May period. This is the lowest tally since the first five months of 2009, when Seoul was still reeling with the aftermath of the global financial crisis. At the time, there were 172,000 new jobs.

In addition, the latest industrial output data for May showed business investment contracting for three months in a row and consumption remaining in negative territory for two months, a clear sign that the economy is not doing well.

Observers, moreover, said a possible trade war between the United States and leading economies like China and the European Union is expected to pose fresh problems. Countries setting up barriers can be very detrimental to trading nations such as South Korea that need overseas markets to generate growth.

"The government got approval for the 3.83 trillion won extra budget two months ago yet domestic spending and job creation remains weak, and with the potential trade dispute on the horizon, the country attaining 3 percent growth this year may become more difficult," said Kim Jung-sik, a professor of economics at Yonsei University.

He further said there is a need to keep tabs on interest rate rises in the United States and China in the coming months since such developments could destabilize the financial market.

Reflecting this, foreign investors have sold more than 4.05 trillion won worth of local stocks more than they bought this year, which has played a part in the KOSPI, the country's main bourse, falling to around 2,300 from a high of 2,600.

Joo Won, a senior research fellow at HRI, said the rise of household debt and debt taken on by independent businesses could pose complications in the remaining months of the year. He added that the job market is not looking good at the moment and that Seoul may have to consider asking parliament for an even larger supplementary budget to keep growth momentum going.

Despite the gloomy predictions, the government maintains that the national economy is on the mend even if consumption and certain data indicate weaknesses.

The finance ministry, through its Green Book monthly economy assessment report, emphasized that the national economy has been steadily recovering from December 2017 through June of this year. (Yonhap News)

< 저작권자 © eseoulpost 무단전재 및 재배포금지 >
폰트키우기 폰트줄이기 프린트하기 메일보내기 신고하기
트위터 페이스북 미투데이 요즘 네이버 구글 msn 뒤로가기 위로가기
이 기사에 대한 댓글 이야기 (0)
자동등록방지용 코드를 입력하세요!   
확인
- 200자까지 쓰실 수 있습니다. (현재 0 byte / 최대 400byte)
- 욕설등 인신공격성 글은 삭제 합니다. [운영원칙]
이 기사에 대한 댓글 이야기 (0)
Most Read
1
Leadership of World Peace, the Responsibility and Role of
2
DLD Service Centres serve 39,000 investors, attain AED131 billion in investments
3
S.Korea HWPL Peace Summit ignites international support for peace law campaign
4
Al Ghufran tribe calls on Human Rights Council to document Qatar regime's violations
5
Moon to hold summit with Trump in New York next week: official
6
ICCK Diwali Ball 2018: Experience the Spirit of India (Nov.9)
7
Taiwanese march in New York to appeal for U.N. membership
8
Sharjah Charity’s 30 years of success binds us to continue march of progress: Essam Al Qasimi
9
Sharjah, Indonesia review ways of boosting economic, trade relations
10
Statement on Pak-UAE relations on official visit of Prime Minister of Pakistan to United Arab Emirates
Photo News Green Biz
Abu Dhabi hosts The First Regional Biodiversity Forum in the Gulf Region
Abu Dhabi hosts The First Regional...
min
Etihad ESCO plans to reduce more than one million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030
Etihad ESCO plans to reduce more t...
min
Sharjah Municipality, MOCCAE discuss cooperation to protect environment
Sharjah Municipality, MOCCAE discu...
min
Earth Hour 2018: Lights out across UAE as Earth Hour is marked
Earth Hour 2018: Lights out across...
min
Suqia plays key role in enhancing UAE's global efforts to address water challenges
Suqia plays key role in enhancing ...
min
Photo News Sports
Two taekwondo golds among 11 medals for S. Korea on Day 1
Two taekwondo golds among 11 medal...
min
Taiwan team wins first gold medal at Asian Games
Taiwan team wins first gold medal ...
min
(Asian Games) Koreas march together at opening ceremony
(Asian Games) Koreas march togethe...
min
FIFA Club World Cup UAE 2018 to boost nation's global sporting credentials
FIFA Club World Cup UAE 2018 to bo...
min
UAE gearing up for Asia's biggest football tournament
UAE gearing up for Asia's biggest ...
MIN
Taiwan blasts China for blocking Taichung games
Taiwan blasts China for blocking T...
min
S. Korean table tennis player savors 'historic' title with N. Korean partner
S. Korean table tennis player savo...
min
S. Korean golfer Kim Sei-young sets LPGA scoring records to win Thornberry Creek Classic
S. Korean golfer Kim Sei-young set...
min
Photo News World
Two taekwondo golds among 11 medals for S. Korea on Day 1
Two taekwondo golds among 11 medal...
min
Taiwan team wins first gold medal at Asian Games
Taiwan team wins first gold medal ...
min
(Asian Games) Koreas march together at opening ceremony
(Asian Games) Koreas march togethe...
min
FIFA Club World Cup UAE 2018 to boost nation's global sporting credentials
FIFA Club World Cup UAE 2018 to bo...
min
UAE gearing up for Asia's biggest football tournament
UAE gearing up for Asia's biggest ...
MIN
Taiwan blasts China for blocking Taichung games
Taiwan blasts China for blocking T...
min
S. Korean table tennis player savors 'historic' title with N. Korean partner
S. Korean table tennis player savo...
min
S. Korean golfer Kim Sei-young sets LPGA scoring records to win Thornberry Creek Classic
S. Korean golfer Kim Sei-young set...
min
Photo News Opinion
First ladies of Koreas visit children's hospital, music college in Pyongyang
First ladies of Koreas visit child...
min
Kim says he expects progress in U.S.-N. Korea talks
Kim says he expects progress in U....
min
Samsung, Hyundai, SK, LG leaders to join President Moon's Pyongyang visit
Samsung, Hyundai, SK, LG leaders t...
min
Moon to fly directly to Pyongyang for 3rd summit with N. Korean leader
Moon to fly directly to Pyongyang ...
min
Koreas open joint liaison office in Kaesong
Koreas open joint liaison office i...
min
Moon aide hopes summit will provide fresh impetus for nuclear talks
Moon aide hopes summit will provid...
min
Two Koreas to hold working-level military talks
Two Koreas to hold working-level m...
min
Koreas to open liaison office in Kaesong on Friday
Koreas to open liaison office in K...
min
Newspaper AboutNews ReportAdvertiseComplaintsPrivacy PolicyJuvenile protectionRejection of E-mail Collection
Gangnam-gu, Teheran 52 street in Tehran Bldg, 616(Yeoksam-dong)  |  Main Phone: 02) 563-0604  |  Fax: 02) 538-5665
Chairman : jeong-woo Lee  |  Advisor : byung-il Min  |  Publisher: jae-mo Kah  |  Editors: il-hong Kim
Registration Number 1928 Seoul ah  |  eseoulpost.com / eseoulpost.net / Global Korea.,Ltd
Copyright © 2011 eseoulpost. All rights reserved. mail to jaemokah@daum.com , kih10kr@empas.com/ www.globalkorea.info
arabafrica.net / UAE Interract / Emirtes News Agency(WAM)/ http://wam.org.ae / www.uaeinteract.com